Martyn Rhisiart Jones, Madrid 12th March 2026

We asked some of our clients, bespoke AI and our Strategy Team: Who is the political leader most likely to cause World War III, and who is the political leader most capable of stopping World War III?

And this was the response:

Viewed through the prism of strategic history and contemporary financial diplomacy, the question of which leader might inadvertently ignite, or instead forestall, a wider conflagration is less a matter of personality than of structural power, institutional constraints, and geopolitical incentives. Yet, as historians from Thucydides to modern analysts have repeatedly noted, individual leaders can still accelerate or dampen systemic pressures. With that caveat, recent expert commentary, polling data and geopolitical assessments as of March 2026 suggest two figures loom particularly large in opposite directions: Donald Trump, the incumbent president of the United States, and Xi Jinping, China’s paramount leader.