To begin at the beginning…

Martyn Rhisiart Jones

Madrid, Monday 5th January 2026

Does Independence for Wales Make Sense?

The question of Welsh independence, “Cymru Annibynnol”, is a multifaceted one, blending cultural pride, political aspirations, and harsh economic realities. As of January 2026, it’s a topic of growing debate, especially with the Senedd elections looming in May 2026. Support for independence has fluctuated but remains a minority view. However, it’s rising among younger demographics. This support could gain traction if Plaid Cymru (the pro-independence party) performs strongly. I will draw from recent polls and expert analyses. I will outline a balanced, non-partisan assessment based on key dimensions. These dimensions include political viability, economic feasibility, cultural significance, and public sentiment. Whether it “makes sense” ultimately depends on priorities (self-determination vs. stability) but the evidence suggests it’s theoretically possible yet fraught with challenges.

Current Public Sentiment

Opinion polls show support for independence hovering between 20-35%, with “No” consistently leading. The most recent data (up to late 2025) indicates no majority for separation, but momentum is building:

• March 2025 (Redfield & Wilton Strategies): Yes 35%, No 50%, Don’t know 15%. en.wikipedia.org
• September 2024 (YouGov): Yes 24%, No 61%, Don’t know 15%. en.wikipedia.org
• June 2024 (Redfield & Wilton): Yes 33%, No 57%, Don’t know 10%. en.wikipedia.org

Polls often spike with non-standard questions (e.g., “if Wales rejoined the EU”: up to 39% Yes in some 2023 surveys).

Support is higher among under-35s. Recent surveys indicate this is around 40-50%. Support is also higher in Welsh-speaking areas. However, it is lower in border regions tied to England.

Recent party polls for the 2026 Senedd election show Plaid Cymru leading at 30%. Reform UK follows at 27%. Labour is slumping at around 12-20%. If Plaid governs, independence could become a key issue. However, even Plaid’s leader has clarified the election won’t be a direct referendum on independence.

This echoes historical figures like Gwynfor Evans. He was the Plaid Cymru leader who championed Welsh sovereignty and cultural revival in the 20th century. He secured milestones like Welsh-language TV. Today’s movement builds on that legacy but faces a post-Brexit UK landscape.

Pros and Cons: A Balanced View

Independence could empower Wales (population ~3.1 million) to chart its own course, but experts warn of significant hurdles. A 2024 report by the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales concluded it’s “viable.” However, it would require major fiscal adjustments.

Here’s a high-level comparison:

Aspect	Pros (Arguments for Independence)	Cons (Arguments Against)
Economic	Control over resources like renewable energy (Wales has strong wind/hydro potential) and tailored policies could boost growth. Potential EU rejoining might access markets/funds. Estimated GDP per capita could rise long-term with autonomy. bbc.com	Fiscal deficit: Wales receives £15bn more in UK funding than it raises in taxes (£13,500 per person vs. UK average). bbc.com Independence could mean austerity, higher taxes, or spending cuts. 80% of trade is with England—borders/customs would disrupt supply chains. nation.cymru
Political	Full self-determination: Decide on immigration, foreign policy, and devolved areas like health/education without Westminster veto. Could inspire progressive reforms (e.g., stronger environmental protections).	Loss of UK-wide influence is evident with no seats in Westminster. There is reliance on negotiations for shared services, such as defense and currency. Wales would likely keep the pound initially, but it could be volatile. Small size might limit global clout; recent UK Labour gov has devolved more powers, reducing urgency. en.ara.cat
Cultural/Social	Preserve and promote Welsh identity, language (spoken by ~20%), and heritage—free from “English dominance.” Echoes Evans’s legacy of cultural sovereignty. Could foster national pride and innovation.	Risk of division: Many Welsh identify as British too (polls show ~60% prioritize UK identity). en.wikipedia.org Potential brain drain if economy struggles; social services (NHS) tied to UK funding.
Practical	Precedents like Ireland/Slovakia show small nations thrive. Wales could model on Nordic states for welfare/economy.	Logistics: New institutions (army, embassies, borders). Pensions/debt share negotiations are complex. Transition could take years, with uncertainty deterring investment.

Does It Make Sense? A truth-seeking perspective examines cultural and self-determination aspects. For advocates like Plaid supporters, independence aligns with a proud history of resilience. Consider the Mabinogion myths or Dylan Thomas’s poetic defiance. It could address grievances like underinvestment and Brexit’s impacts (Wales voted Leave but now regrets in polls).

Politically, a Plaid victory in 2026 might push for a referendum, similar to Scotland’s indyref2 debates.

Economically and practically, however, it’s riskier. The fiscal gap is stark, and experts like the Commission’s report emphasise “significant challenges” in revenue-raising without UK subsidies.

Critics, including UK Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens, warn it could lead to austerity.

Support remains below 40%, and No leads by 15-37 points. It’s not imminent. However, rising youth backing, fueled by social media and cultural revival, could shift dynamics by 2030.

In short, independence makes sense if you prioritise sovereignty over stability, but the data points to a tough road. For a deeper dive, follow ongoing polls or reports from Cardiff University.

Blwyddyn Newydd Dda! May 2026 bring clarity to Wales’s future!

Many thanks for reading.

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